Tuesday, April 24, 2012
The coming bust in the healthcare bubble
Any sentient person would argue that all bubbles eventually burst. The typical economic bubble grows larger and larger until it finally reaches a size that the enabling catalyst simply can no longer provide enough whatever to grow and sustain the bubble. At this point air begins to escape, the bubble shrinks to a size that can be sustained, and voila, we have a sustainable, 'normal' equilibrium. Scottish journalist Charles Mackay addressed this phenomenon in a book published in 1841: "Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds". In it he discussed the known bubbles up to then: Misssippi Scheme of John Law in the early 1700's, South Seas bubble, Teapot Dome, Tulip mania, and others proved to Mackay that bubbles eventually burst. Nothing has changed. Witness the credit bubbles of the '20's that led to the Great Depression and the Dotcom and housing bubbles of the last decade. This column by Andrew Foy, an M.D., makes a compelling case, backed up with ample graphs and charts, that the US healthcare system long ago entered the bubble phase and is now headed for a major correction.
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