Sunday, October 31, 2010
More on the Debt Issue
The description and explanation of the federal debt in the Wikipedia pages here is interesting. Wikipedia's methodology is suspect among some, but at least it tries to deal with controversial and complicated issues which it has done in this case. It would appear that the debt load is approaching the critical point at which the economy simple can no longer expand, create new jobs and provide for rising incomes. Although the exact point at which this happens is not universally accepted, the magic number to one economist quoted in this explanation is about 90% of GDP and by one of two differing measurements of debt we have already reached this number. In any case we are on a path to reach the levels of debt Japan has been experiencing for the last decade (130% of GDP) and that country has not seen an expanding economy for nearly two decades now. So the cause for concern is real and not just a political position being taken by one party. The reality is that which ever party is in control, they are going to have to make major changes in the level of government spending and debt in order to return us to a growth scenario for the economy. Bottom line: Too much government debt chokes off the private sector and results in stagnation. It's pretty clear that's where we are now.
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