The FDR/Obama reelection model

For those who believe that unemployment above 8%, poor management of foreign affairs, massive run up of government debt levels, major administration scandals, an overwhelmingly unpopular healthcare law, and a no growth economy are enough to sink Obama's reelection, think FDR.  There is every reason to believe FDR was a colossal failure as POTUS until the WWII began in 1941.  He was elected to office in 1933 and from that date until the Japanese attack in 1941, unemployment was nearly 20% of the workforce.  This despite countless government "employment" initiatives and make work programs, a huge run up in the national debt, many soothing 'fireside chats' and the like. Famously Henry Morganthau Jr., FDR's Secretary of Treasury commented in late '39: “We have tried spending money. We are spending more than we have ever spent before and it does not work.”. And yet Roosevelt was reelected to a second term in 1937, and a third and fourth eventually.  Here's how the redoubtable Thomas Sowell puts it:

Unemployment may remain a problem to many Americans, but that only provides another occasion for the Obama administration to show its "compassion" with extended unemployment benefits, more food stamps and various interventions to save home buyers from mortgage foreclosure. This can easily be a winning political strategy.

Franklin D. Roosevelt won his biggest landslide victory after his first term in office, during which the unemployment rate was never less than twice what it has been under Barack Obama.

The "smart money" inside the Beltway says that a high unemployment rate spells doom at the polls for a president. But history says that people who are getting government handouts tend to vote for whoever is doing the handing out.

So here's the "watch out" for Republicans.  Like Roosevelt, despite high unemployment and failed policies, Obama has remained popular.  Most Americans dislike his performance in office but still like him personally.  It would seem this election will come down to how effective Romney is as a candidate who can convince Americans that Obama is not up to the job of ever getting the economy going again.  After all, Roosevelt ran against the utterly feckless Alf Landon in 1936, and was successful in obscuring all the failures in his first term.