Thursday, February 18, 2010

Global Debt Bomb

This article from Forbes.com has to be the mother of all stories on the subject of debt throughout the world.  It is long and it is scary.  My good friend Jim has been propounding this scenario for many years and should really write a book, as I have been encouraging him to do.  Jim studied the work of Fischer, a noted economist on the Yale faculty during the Big Depression years of the '30s and virtually unknown today, according to Jim, got the debt issue right in the end.  This article seems to be and extension of Fischer's thought, at least as I superficially understand it, on the role debt played in causing the '30s depression and every recession since including the one we are in now.  There simply doesn't seem to be the will to curb the growth of debt in the system until there is a crises, and then it is almost too late.  Meanwhile debt soars to the point in Japan where its sovereign debt is now almost 200% of GDP.  Ours is now slightly above 80%.  While the 80% figure sounds good compared to say Japan, the Forbes.com article talks about the work of two economist who have determined that the magic number for the debt to GDP ration to eliminate economic growth in the economy is 90%.  So, we are drawing close.  IMHO, while long this article is worth the time to read.







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