There's a fourth possibility not mentioned by Bonchie that's much worse than the three he mentioned. I've posted this before, but it seems to be vital enough to bear repetition.
Savva Shanaev (a Brit, in Newcastle, who has no ideological or political dog in the fight) has provided remarkable information about the whole election, county by county. Like a lot of other foreign observers, he couldn't understand the results of the election, but he has the tools to look at them statistically.
There's an arcane tool called Benford's Law that characterizes the behavior of very large sets of numbers that describe mass behavior or large numbers of transactions: elections, investments, accounting, populations, etc. Benford's Law looks only at the way digits generally occur in base-10 arithmetic, which makes it very widely interesting. Something so general and abstract can prove nothing by itself, but it's very commonly used by (and useful to) investigators as a "hint" pointing to where some bones might be buried, to be searched out by more direct and technical investigation. Benford's Law can strongly suggest that numbers have been manipulated for a purpose. By itself, it can say nothing about how they might have been manipulated, or why.
[From Journal of Accountancy, a neat and clear explanation of the more customary uses of Benford’s Law by auditors and accountants: Https://www.journalofaccountancy.Com/issues/2017/apr/excel-and-benfords-law-to-detect-fraud.html#:~:text=Briefly%20explained%2C%20Benford's%20Law%20maintains,leading%20digit%20with%20decreasing%20frequency ]
*** A brief explanation of Benford's Law by Shanaev himself:
Https://sharevision.Com/video/ax6q3d
*** Two videos that apply Benford's Law to the 2020 US election.
Https://sharevision.Com/video/bD1pKd
Https://sharevision.Com/video/eE8rgd
Shanaev uses the same tools used by professional forensic investigators and finds in the same hints that they look for, the likelihood that significant fraud occurred far beyond six metropolitan areas in six battleground states. He's an extraordinary teacher. His work has been "no longer available" on YouTube since early 2022, and Google can't even find it anymore. But you can track it down with DuckDuckGo, and it's available entirely on Sharevision. It's also been published more formally by SSRN (Social Science Research Network):
Https://papers.ssrn.Com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3728626
This is the abstract for the paper:
This study applies Benford’s law to detect anomalies in county-level vote data for the 2020 US presidential election. [Shanaev's conclusions:] Most prominent distribution violations are observed with Republican vote counts in blue states, all vote counts in states won by the Democratic candidate, and Democratic vote counts in swing states. Distributions are anomalous in swing states won by the Democratic nominee and not anomalous in swing states won by the Republican nominee.
But the Sharevision videos are also free, and easier to understand.
Shanaev's results are robust to two-digit analysis, Monte Carlo simulations of p-values, broad or narrow swing state definitions, and when compared to distributions observed in 2008, 2012, and 2016 elections.
The Benford's law analysis proves nothing, but a professional forensic investigator would find in Shanaev's work a strong suggestion that manipulation [by fake ballots, by machine manipulation (Dominion is far from being out of the woods yet), or however] was used not only when necessary to take votes from Trump, but was also used very widely to inflate the Biden vote everywhere except in solid "red states". Think about the numbers for just a few seconds. Trump got more votes than any Republican Presidential candidate before him. Yet somehow Biden, who never campaigned, who had zero interest (or even attendance) at his few public appearances, got far more votes then either Obama or Clinton, and in fact more votes than any previous candidate in US history.
There isn't any way that Biden got "81 million votes" from real living people. The implication of all this is that fraud on a national scale, involving not a few thousand votes in a handful of metropolitan areas but in fact tens of millions of votes across the nation, might not only be possible, but actually easy and unprovable even when it's detected red-handed. If this is in fact the case, it will make no difference who either party nominates next year. Bonchie's observation of Biden's serenity is just another piece of the whole picture.
